Metaruptions and the End of Trends: 5 Ways to Prepare for Systemic Disruption

by Roger Spitz

Metaruptions Drive Systemic Disruption

In his 1982 book Megatrends, John Naisbitt defined megatrends as transformative processes with global reach and dramatic impact. Because Megatrends are perceived as relatively certain, many see them as interacting predictably with each other. However, extrapolating trends is dangerous, especially when they compound flawed assumptions. With time, assumptions magnify; wrong assumptions cascade and blow up. The greater the pace of change, the greater the futility of looking in the rearview mirror.

Metaruptions, an abbreviation of disruption with the prefix “meta”, contrast Naisbitt’s megatrends. A metaruption is a multidimensional family of systemic disruptions that cause widespread, self-perpetuating effects, including shifts in the notion of disruption itself. Metaruptions are unpredictable and defy rulebooks – and most organizations lack the tools they need to prepare for them.

To Survive Metaruptions: Widen the Aperture, Multiply Lenses

Metaruptions shatter what we consider normal. From the COVID-19 pandemic to energy crises, supply chain disruptions, artificial intelligence, misinformation, trade wars, and inflationary pressures unseen in decades, systemic disruption is cascading across our hyperconnected world. To effectively prepare for the unpredictable, we must scan for early signals of change with curiosity.

Signals are fragments of the future that can be observed today. Unlike trends, signals can presage shifts before they mature. Strong signals are indicators of imminent change; weak signals are early signs of change that could grow to herald fundamental discontinuity.

Because weak signals often arise on the fringe of mainstream knowledge, reactions of disbelief, laughter, or even ridicule can act as a filter to identify them. Weak signals are often overlooked, even though they may lead to transformational events.

Ultimately, disruption’s impact hinges on three factors: your perspective, your preparedness, and the effectiveness of your timely response. But how can we better prepare for the surprises ahead?

The “Complex Five”: Decoding Levels of Uncertainty

“It has never happened before” is not a reason to dismiss possibilities. In today’s world, “rare” is becoming less rare. We must understand and constantly assess the different types of uncertainty to better prepare for metaruptions:

• Known Knowns: Things we know that we know. For these, we use Michele Wucker’s definition of “Gray Rhino.” There is no uncertainty with Gray Rhinos; we might treat them as unknown, but they are certain.
• Unknown Knowns: Things we think we know, but we find that we don’t understand them when they manifest. For example, increasing ocean temperatures and acidity levels prompted perfect conditions for jellyfish population growth. This increase then forced shutdowns from jellyfish clogs in the cooling systems of nuclear reactors. Here, situations we believe we understand can become complex, as small changes drive larger, unpredictable impacts. To describe such unknown knowns, Postnormal Times uses the term “Black Jellyfish.”
• Known Unknowns: Things we know we don’t know, including new diseases, climate change impacts, and mass human migration. These are highly likely events, but few acknowledge them. We call these known unknowns “Black Elephants,” from the Institute for Collapsonomics.
• Unknown Unknowns: Things that we don’t know that we don’t know. For these unpredictable outliers, we use Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Black Swans.”
• Butterfly Effects: The flapping wings of one majestic insect brings these animals together. The “Butterfly Effect,” defined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz, describes how small changes can have significant and unpredictable consequences. To illustrate, Lorenz described a butterfly flapping its wings influencing tornado formation elsewhere.

Five Responses to Prepare for Systemic Disruption

The big five in safaris (buffalo, leopards, lions, elephants, and rhinos) are dangerous because of their strength and size. In our disruptive world, our Complex Five are the five most important animals in our “hunting” for big disruptors.

Here are five ways we can adapt our responses to prepare for systemic disruption.

• Don’t Ignore the Gathering Rhinos Imagine Wucker’s Gray Rhino: What high-impact outcomes do we ignore, despite the evidence they are already charging at us?
  AI-powered deepfakes are becoming commonplace, threatening facts, democracies, and mental health. Furthermore, artificial intelligence already has incredible capabilities which excel at defined tasks. To build skills that machines cannot quickly emulate, we must replace mechanical transfers of knowledge with human-centric capabilities. With Gray Rhinos, responses often fall short because decisions come too late. To avoid being trampled, anticipate the impacts rather than ignoring them.
• Deflect the Jellyfish’s Secondary Sting
  While the initial situation may seem predictable, Black Jellyfish grow into something that defies our imagination. At the intersection of biology and technology, could humanity’s dominance be challenged? Also, what will be the cascading effects of disinformation? To respond to Black Jellyfish, we need to consider snowballing effects. Ask “What if this expanded larger than expected?” and “What else might this impact?”
• Confront the Elephant in the Room
  Black Elephants are obvious threats, but few are willing to acknowledge them. These are similar to Gray Rhinos, but for now the elephant is standing, versus the imminent charging rhino. For instance, as we delegate to AI systems, our decision-making capacities erode, causing us to lose the ability to make complex decisions ourselves. Black Elephants require mobilizing action, aligning stakeholders, and understanding changes throughout our complex systems. Own your response. Don’t let Black Elephants blindside you, or they will morph into Gray Rhinos and charge.
• Build Systemic Resilience for Black Swans
  Taleb’s Black Swans are unforeseeable but extremely high-impact events. The issue is that we don’t know what we don’t know. However unpredictable Black Swans are, we can still be anticipatory, while building resilient foundations for the randomness of our world. Pay attention to rare yet profound events, and when Black Swans appear, rise up from the devastation.
• Expect the Unexpected from our Majestic Butterfly
  The butterfly effect is liminal: It can mutate into the other animals. How do the Complex Five snowball as they collide? Systemic disruption is a breeding ground for Butterfly Effects. Not preparing comes at a high cost. Our global systems are interdependent. Impacts are not siloed; likewise, neither should our approach to assessing change and future-preparedness.

The best response to the Complex Five is to expect the unexpected. By recognizing the degrees of uncertainty, we can better prepare for a range of metaruptions ahead.

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