We’re no longer living in a world that can be forecasted with tidy models or trend lines. Change today is faster and more unpredictable than ever. The question is, how should we think in a world that refuses to be predicted: “Disruption is a constant. It’s not a problem. It’s a feature.” – Roger Spitz
In an era of growing complexity, Roger Spitz, founder of the Disruptive Futures Institute, argues that we’re completely misunderstanding disruption. It’s not just about new technologies or market shifts – it’s systemic and it’s constant.
Rather than trying to forecast change with outdated models, the Authority on Strategic Foresight adopts a new approach, rooted in systems thinking and informed optimism.
During this interview, he introduces the idea of ‘Metaruptions’, which are intersecting forces that resist traditional trend analysis. These include climate, AI, societal shifts, and the breakdown of information ecosystems. “You cannot control it or isolate it or seek to predict it. So you really need to be prepared for shocks and surprises and get comfortable with that unpredictability.”
His warning on AI is clear: while it excels in stable, knowable environments, its limitations become dangerous in complex, uncertain ones. The risk isn’t just about bad predictions, it’s about ceding decision-making to systems that lack the philosophical or ethical context to navigate ambiguity.“There’s no data on the future.”
The award-winning author moves on to discuss how linear thinking is obsolete, stating that we need new operating systems for complexity. He challenges us to rethink everything: from how we make decisions, to how we educate, to how we interpret risk. The most powerful tool we have is an informed ‘worldview’.
He encourages leaders to embrace uncertainty and rethink decision-making. His institute’s work, including executive education, is focused on equipping leaders for this future.
“Trillions will be created, or destroyed, through change. Where you land depends on how you see the world.”
Video Timeline
- 00:00 Who are you and what do you do?
- 00:26 How has your career shaped how you approach disruption?
- 01:35 How do you define systemic disruption, and what are some misconceptions?
- 02:41 What does Techistentialism mean? How do you see decision-making evolving with the rise of AI?
- 04:17 In your award-winning book “Disrupt With Impact”, what do you hope readers take away?
- 06:09 As an Advisor to The World Economic Forum’s Foresight Network, what trends are you monitoring?
- 10:46 How does your global view help companies with their biggest challenges?
- 12:47 What is next for you?
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