Ian Bremmer

For the past two decades, the post-Cold War global order has been breaking down, leaving us to respond to a series of crises with both political, market, and business implications. Today, that breakdown is no longer theoretical: it is reshaping trade, war, technology, energy markets, and the capacity of major powers to cooperate in real time. Ian Bremmer argues that we have moved from a G-Zero world into a more dangerous phase of geopolitical recession—one defined not simply by a vacuum of leadership, but by mounting rivalry, transactional diplomacy, and weaker guardrails between the world’s biggest powers.

The world’s most powerful country— the United States — has become the most politically dysfunctional rich-world country. The world’s most important bilateral relationship — US-China —is deteriorating more quickly than leaders can build new guardrails. Today’s global institutions no longer reflect the world’s true balance of power. The result: a growing vacuum of leadership and cross-border coordination. This geopolitical recession will continue to limit our ability to respond to simultaneous crises from Russia-Ukraine war to the Middle East to climate change, and the emergence of disruptive new technologies.

Ian will share ideas and insights to help policymakers and business decisionmakers navigate a world in accelerating transition.

To navigate globalization, every business decision-maker weighs economic variables when considering overseas investments or market exposure. But to spot crucial opportunities and manage risk, they must also understand the political factors and trends changing our world in real-time. Whether it’s increasingly contentious relations between China and the United States, ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, a more complex regulatory environment in Europe, a newly global focus from India, surges of populism in Latin America, heightened competition in Africa, or dozens of other politically driven trends, political analyst and entrepreneur Ian Bremmer will detail how political risk is creating new sets of business winners and losers.

At this presentation audiences will learn:
• How to identify political risks that can materially affect investment, operations, and supply chains
• How to understand the new phase of US-China competition, from tariffs and export controls to strategic commodities and technology access
• How to assess the geopolitical impact of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East on energy, shipping, and market stability
• How to track the industrial and regulatory trends—especially in the US, Europe, and Asia—that are reshaping the global balance of power
• How to incorporate AI, data, and digital sovereignty into enterprise risk planning

For most of human history, power belonged to whoever controlled territory, natural resources, and armies. In the coming century, it will belong to whoever controls artificial intelligence—the systems that will determine how economies grow, how militaries fight, how governments function, and how individuals understand the world around them.

That is not a prediction about a distant future. The decisions being made right now—about who builds these systems, who funds them, who they answer to, and what they optimize for—will be more consequential for the global balance of power than any election, any trade agreement, or any military alliance currently on the table.

Ian Bremmer will argue that AI is the most important geopolitical story of our time: not because of what it might do if it goes spectacularly wrong or right, but because of what it is already doing as it presently—simultaneously concentrating and diffusing power, reshaping competition, and programming human behavior at a scale that no previous technology has approached. Who—which business models, companies, and countries—sets the terms for this technology, and to what ends, is the question that will define the century.

In a G-Zero world—one without strong and sustainable international leadership—crises no longer remain confined to one region or one issue area. They cascade across energy markets, supply chains, alliance systems, financial conditions, and domestic politics. Ian Bremmer argues that this is the defining challenge of the current era: not simply that crises are more frequent, but that the world is less capable of coordinating an effective response.

Ian discusses the geopolitics of…
• War in Ukraine: How will the push for a negotiated end to the war—amid growing questions about territorial concessions, long-term deterrence, and Western security guarantees—shape the future of European security and the transatlantic alliance?
• The Middle East and energy security: What does conflict in the Middle East reveal about the vulnerability of global shipping lanes, the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and the enduring power of regional conflict to send shocks through oil prices, inflation, and global business operations?
• Climate and industrial resilience: How are climate pressures now intersecting with industrial policy, energy security, and strategic competition—especially as Europe and others try to localize production in critical sectors?
• Tech: Ian assesses the growing risks of AI, quantum computing, cyberwarfare, and their impact on the future of government, trade, and the international system.

This talk explains why crisis management is now the central test of leadership for governments and companies alike—and how decision-makers can prepare for a world in which geopolitical shocks are more connected, more frequent, and harder to contain.